Three of the four tournament frontrunners secured victories on Matchday 1, but one side’s unconvincing performance suggests they should be avoided.
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Bookmakers cast their verdict after Matchday 1
Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester City and Bayern Munich remain the main contenders in the outright market. Their Matchday 1 results varied - some recorded convincing wins, while Madrid stumbled against Al Hilal. Here, we take a deeper look at each leading candidate.
PSG
Fresh from their first-ever Champions League triumph and a famous quadruple, PSG entered the tournament with serious momentum. They built on that with a commanding 4-0 victory over Atletico Madrid on Matchday 1, which wasn’t the biggest win of the round, but perhaps the most eye-catching.
A clash between two European heavyweights was the biggest game of the round, and PSG’s dominant display sent a clear message. Bookmakers reacted swiftly, cutting their odds significantly after the game. The Parisians are a force to be reckoned with at the moment, but their value in the market has dropped even further after Matchday 1. Still, it’s hard to see past them winning this tournament.
Manchester City
Manchester City’s Matchday 1 clash with Wydad was only ever going to end one way - in a City win. That’s exactly what happened, but the Cityzens certainly weren’t overly convincing. They secured a 2-0 win that has left them trailing Juventus on goal difference in Group G.
It’s worth noting that Pep Guardiola rested most of his key players, which means we saw a City side operating at roughly half strength. They’ll almost certainly get better as the tournament goes on, and with their odds holding steady since the start, they’re still the best value pick. City’s knack for growing into seasons/tournaments should never be underestimated, particularly at such generous odds.
Real Madrid
We advised against putting too much faith in pre-tournament favourites Real Madrid before Matchday 1, and their opening round game explained why. Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw against Saudi side Al Hilal, which for large parts was a very even contest, and it certainly raised eyebrows around their prospects in this tournament.
Adapting to a new style of football, while also trying to bed in new signings, this tournament was never going to be plain sailing for Madrid. Bookmakers have taken note, with their odds drifting substantially after Matchday 1. In some places, they’ve gone from comfortable favourites to third favourites in what is a harsh blow for anyone who backed them pre-tournament.
Bayern Munich
Opta’s power rankings suggest Bayern Munich face the toughest group to qualify from. That almost certainly excludes amateur side Auckland City, who they blew away 10-0 on Matchday 1. Yet, since such a result was widely anticipated, it hasn’t played a great role in how bookmakers view them.
Sterner tests lie ahead against Benfica and Boca Juniors. Bettors will be able to get a clearer picture of their chances once those games are out of the way. For now, we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on their 10-0 opening win, given the calibre of the opposition. Bookmakers agree, as their odds haven’t moved much.
Time to start looking at potential routes to the final
Priced far more generously than the clear favourite PSG, Manchester City still provide great value for bettors. Despite an underwhelming performance on Matchday 1, they played with a half-strength squad and are expected to improve in their upcoming games once Erling Haaland comes back.
They made smart signings before the tournament and have arguably the best squad available. That could prove crucial over the course of the tournament, especially considering how some teams struggled with the climate on Matchday 1.
PSG remain our top pick for the Club World Cup crown. It’s simply impossible to look beyond them at the moment, given their formidable form. However, City clearly have the quality to challenge them, and their odds do look generous.
If both City and PSG win their respective groups, they’ll be on different sides of the draw in the knockouts, so a City vs PSG final is certainly a possibility. Winning Group G would be monumental for City’s chances as it would put them on the best side of the draw.
Juventus’ 5-0 win on Matchday 1 could complicate things for City, as they might need to overcome the Italian side on Matchday 3 to top the group, depending on how the second Matchday plays out. There would be huge incentive there for City, who will be motivated to secure the best possible run to the final.
A group win for City would see them on the same side of the draw as the winners of Group A, C and E. Group A and E are fairly weak, while Group C is likely to be topped by Bayern Munich, who would pose City’s sternest test. Although it would be wise not to get ahead of themselves just yet, their potential route to the final looks tempting.
This angle may have been overlooked by bookmakers, who still price City considerably above PSG. While in formidable form, PSG could be on the same side of the draw as Real Madrid and Chelsea. That suddenly makes their short odds look slightly less appealing and casts Manchester City’s chances in a much more positive light.